Same Companies. Different Math. Lower Prices.

Why the Scoreboard Looks Wrong

In June 2025, the Bitcoin-treasury companies were all running hot. The narrative was clean: companies with BTC on the balance sheet outperform. The chart went up and to the right. Everyone felt smart.

Nine months later, the same companies have worse BPS and lower share prices. The Bitcoin price went up 40%, but these stocks didn't follow. Something changed. Or did it?

The answer is: both changed. The companies got materially stronger on most metrics. But the metrics themselves got worse. That's the CEBE insight.

When you normalize all eight companies to the same Bitcoin price -- $72K -- and compare their CEBE drag from Summer 2025 to March 2026, five improved their capital structure. Three degraded it. But the stock market treated all of them the same: risk off.

The Scorecard

Here's what happened to the eight major Bitcoin-treasury companies over the nine-month period. The left column shows Q2 2025 CEBE normalized to $72K BTC. The right shows Q1 2026 CEBE at $72K BTC. The arrow shows which direction the company's capital structure moved.

The clear separation: the top five companies made capital structure decisions that strengthened their common equity position. The bottom three either stalled or degraded.

What Separates the Top from the Bottom

Metaplanet (the leader): 163% BTC accumulation, but only 78% share dilution. That's the equation for capital structure strength. They're converting balance sheet claims into common equity claims faster than they're issuing shares. CEBE pulls away from drag.

H100 Holdings: Converted $2.8B in convertible bonds to common equity. That removed senior claims and replaced them with common claims. Drag fell from 28.4 percentage points to 3.5 points. It's the biggest capital structure shift in the peer set.

Capital B: Similar story -- $15M in OCA conversions over the period pulled senior debt off the balance sheet. The drag compression shows it.

ProCap: Debt fell from $235M to $99.6M while they continued share buybacks. That's the double move -- reduce claims AND reduce shares. CEBE loves that.

Strategy: Cash went from $54M to $2.25B. That's a passive drag reduction. More cash on the balance sheet means less net claims in BTC. The math works in your favor even if you're not doing anything explicit.

Now the other three:

Strive: Nearly flat. BTC growth (~8%) barely outpaced share issuance (~7.5%). No capital structure moves. Drag stayed sticky at 41-42%.

Smarter Web: 21% dilution in shares, only 9% BTC accumulation. You're issuing shares faster than you're accumulating Bitcoin. That's the lose-lose. Drag expanded.

Nakamoto: Zero BTC growth (no new treasury), 35% share dilution. Every share issued is a pure claim on less Bitcoin. This is the textbook worst-case capital structure decision. Drag exploded from 29% to 47%.

What This Means

The equity market doesn't price capital structure directly. Most investors look at Bitcoin price and think -- if BTC goes up, these companies go up. That works in the long run. But in the medium term, capital structure matters more than you'd think.

Leverage amplifies both ways. These companies are all leveraged to Bitcoin in different ways through their balance sheets. When the market believes in Bitcoin, the leverage works in your favor. When the market loses faith, the leverage works against you. That's the drag.

The five companies that strengthened their capital structure over nine months -- they're positioned to outperform if Bitcoin holds or rises from here. The three that degraded -- they're fighting headwinds.

CEBE doesn't tell you which stocks to buy. But it does tell you which companies are building stronger balance sheets and which are eroding them. Use that information wisely.