The CEBE framework has matured significantly since this article was written. As MSTR's preferred era ramped (STRC alone now exceeds STRK + STRF + STRD + STRE combined), the comparison standard has evolved from basic BPS to FD BPS, and the framework's core measurement has shifted from directional accuracy to cumulative preferred-driven gap. An updated piece publishes this month. The structural analyses on this page remain valid; the statistical comparison section is being refreshed.
BPS Yield is a coin flip. And it's getting worse.
The directional accuracy claims in this section (50%/68%, era subsets) are part of the statistical comparison being refreshed. See editor's note above. The structural arguments throughout the article — phantom growth quarters, zero line, time value collapse, split zone — are unaffected and stand on their own evidence.
BPS Yield (Strategy's official KPI) gets the direction of your investment right 50% of the time. CEBE Yield hits 68%. And it's getting worse: as preferred stock entered the capital structure, BPS got less accurate while CEBE got more accurate.
As preferred stock scaled from $0 to $8.4B, the CEBE advantage over BPS widened from +12 percentage points to +40 percentage points. BPS breaks when the capital structure gets complicated. CEBE doesn't.
Who gets paid first?
Strategy's 713,502 BTC secure $8.2B in convertible debt and $8.4B in preferred stock before common shareholders see a single sat. Drag the slider to see how much of the treasury belongs to you at any BTC price.
The price of ruin keeps climbing
The "zero line" is the BTC price where senior claims consume the entire treasury and common equity hits $0. This doesn't mean insolvency. Strategy's debt is no-call and can't force liquidation. But it's the price where CEBE = 0 and your equity is pure option premium.
Your equity is a call option
Robert Merton proved in 1974 that equity in a leveraged firm is mathematically identical to a call option on firm assets with a strike price equal to total liabilities. CEBE is the intrinsic value of that option. The gap between MSTR's market price and CEBE (the "time value") tells you how much premium the market puts on Saylor's execution.
MSTR barely above its CEBE value.
for the option on 713,502 BTC.
The purchases bears call "dilutive"
aren't always dilutive
When Strategy issues shares to buy BTC, BPS and CEBE set different bars for accretion. BPS demands new shares bring in more sats than existing BPS. CEBE only requires they exceed existing CEBE, a lower bar by exactly the phantom dollar ($49.94/share). The gap creates a split zone where purchases are BPS-dilutive but CEBE-accretive.
The Split Zone
Recent Purchases: BPS vs CEBE Verdict
| Week | BTC | Sats/New Share | BPS Says | CEBE Says |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8-14 '25 | 10,645 | 197,130 | ✗ Dilutive | ✓ Accretive |
| Jan 5-11 '26 | 13,627 | 189,264 | ✗ Dilutive | ✓ Accretive |
| Jan 12-19 '26 | 22,305 | 214,471 | ✗ Dilutive | ✓ Accretive |
| Jan 20-25 '26 | 2,932 | 186,752 | ✗ Dilutive | ✓ Accretive |
| Jan 27-Feb 1 '26 | 855 | 150,000 | ✗ Dilutive | ✗ Dilutive |
Know what you own
Drag the slider. Watch the numbers. Every metric updates in real time.