Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure
TRACKER → ENDGAME → MODELER → BTC $69,195
The Metric That Finishes The Math

BPS tells you what the company holds.
CEBE tells you what you own.

BPS was the right metric when Strategy had 38,250 BTC and zero debt. That was 2020. Today there's $16.6 billion in senior claims. BPS pretends they don't exist. CEBE doesn't.

214,632
BPS (sats/share)
138,959
CEBE (sats/share)
35.3%
Drag
01

BPS Yield is a coin flip. And it's getting worse.

BPS Yield — Strategy's official KPI — gets the direction of your investment right 50% of the time. CEBE Yield hits 68%. And it's getting worse: as preferred stock entered the capital structure, BPS got less accurate while CEBE got more accurate.

BPS Yield Accuracy
50%
11 of 22 quarters correct
CEBE Yield Accuracy
68%
15 of 22 quarters correct
The Trend
BPS accuracy fell from 53% to 40%. CEBE rose from 65% to 80%.
Pre-Preferred Era
Q3 2020 – Q4 2024 · 17 quarters
BPS
53%
CEBE
65%
+12pp gap
Preferred Era
Q1 2025 – Q1 2026 · 5 quarters
BPS
40%
CEBE
80%
+40pp gap
cebetracker.io

As preferred stock scaled from $0 to $8.4B, the CEBE advantage over BPS widened from +12 percentage points to +40 percentage points. BPS breaks when the capital structure gets complicated. CEBE doesn't.

Why the gap? BPS measures all Bitcoin per share but ignores $16.6B in claims that sit ahead of you. When BTC falls and those claims grow in BTC terms, BPS can still show growth while your actual equity shrinks. CEBE accounts for both sides in the same unit. The more senior claims there are, the more BPS and reality diverge — and the more CEBE matters.

Quarters where BPS said ↑ but shareholders lost money ↓

9 phantom growth quarters. BPS was wrong on all of them.

Quarter BPS Yield MSTR Return CEBE Yield
Q2 2021+13.6%−2.1%−33.1%
Q3 2021+7.8%−13.0%+49.8%
Q4 2021+0.1%−5.9%+10.5%
Q1 2022+3.5%−10.7%+4.9%
Q4 2022+1.1%−33.3%−100%
Q2 2024+0.1%−19.2%+4.2%
Q1 2025+9.0%−0.5%+3.8%
Q3 2025+0.8%−20.3%−5.5%
Q4 2025+2.7%−52.8%−1.9%
⚡ = preferred era quarter. Phantom growth frequency doubled from 18% to 40% once prefs entered.
cebetracker.io
Q4 2022. BPS Yield showed +1.1%. Shareholders lost 33.3%. CEBE showed −100%. Common equity was zero. BPS said "you grew." CEBE said "you own nothing." The market agreed with CEBE.
02

Who gets paid first?

Strategy's 713,502 BTC secure $8.2B in convertible debt and $8.4B in preferred stock before common shareholders see a single sat. Drag the slider to see how much of the treasury belongs to you at any BTC price.

$66,000
$10,000 $250,000
cebetracker.io
The zero line is $23,270. Below that price, converts and preferred consume the entire treasury. Common equity = $0. Above it, every dollar of BTC appreciation flows disproportionately to common. That's the embedded leverage. BPS hides it. CEBE shows it.
03

The price of ruin keeps climbing

The "zero line" is the BTC price where senior claims consume the entire treasury and common equity hits $0. This doesn't mean insolvency. Strategy's debt is no-call and can't force liquidation. But it's the price where CEBE = 0 and your equity is pure option premium.

cebetracker.io
2020 Zero Line $9,224
Current Zero Line $23,270
Increase 2.5×
Current Cushion 64.7%
Converts heal. Preferreds don't. If MSTR recovers above $143.25, the $1.7B 2027 notes convert to equity and the zero line drops to $20,887. But the $8.4B in preferred stock never converts. Every new preferred issuance permanently raises the floor. BPS can't show you this. CEBE does.
04

Your equity is a call option

Robert Merton proved in 1974 that equity in a leveraged firm is mathematically identical to a call option on firm assets with a strike price equal to total liabilities. CEBE is the intrinsic value of that option. The gap between MSTR's market price and CEBE — the "time value" — tells you how much premium the market puts on Saylor's execution.

cebetracker.io
Q4 2025 Time Value
7.9%
Maximum pessimism. Market priced
MSTR barely above its CEBE value.
22-Quarter Average
55%
Normal time value premium
for the option on 713,502 BTC.
7.9% time value means the market priced zero premium for Strategy's ability to accumulate BTC, its no-call debt structure, or the lack of any maturity wall. Every prior time value collapse was followed by a recovery.
05

The purchases bears call "dilutive"
aren't always dilutive

When Strategy issues shares to buy BTC, BPS and CEBE set different bars for accretion. BPS demands new shares bring in more sats than existing BPS. CEBE only requires they exceed existing CEBE, a lower bar by exactly the phantom dollar ($49.94/share). The gap creates a split zone where purchases are BPS-dilutive but CEBE-accretive.

The Split Zone

BTC PRICE $66,000
$30,000$200,000
MSTR $132
BOTH DILUTIVE SPLIT ZONE BOTH ACCRETIVE
CEBE $92
BPS $142
cebetracker.io

Recent Purchases: BPS vs CEBE Verdict

Week BTC Sats/New Share BPS Says CEBE Says
Dec 8-14 '25 10,645 197,130 ✗ Dilutive ✓ Accretive
Jan 5-11 '26 13,627 189,264 ✗ Dilutive ✓ Accretive
Jan 12-19 '26 22,305 214,471 ✗ Dilutive ✓ Accretive
Jan 20-25 '26 2,932 186,752 ✗ Dilutive ✓ Accretive
Jan 27-Feb 1 '26 855 150,000 ✗ Dilutive ✗ Dilutive
4 of 5 recent purchases that BPS called "dilutive" were actually CEBE-accretive. Wrong benchmark.
cebetracker.io
Phantom dilution is phantom growth in reverse. BPS misreads the upside (9 quarters where it said "up" while shareholders lost money) and misreads the downside (4 purchases it called "dilutive" that actually grew common equity). Same root cause: ignoring senior claims.
06

Know what you own

Drag the slider. Watch the numbers. Every metric updates in real time.

$66,000
$10,000 $500,000
TREASURY ALLOCATION
■ Converts ■ Preferred ■ Common
cebetracker.io
If you hold the stock, you should know the math. That's what CEBE is for.